Gary Dean

Articles/Essays/Notes

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essay 17 Aug 2026

Ratchet and Repair

Indonesia 2026–2030: a scenario framework with quantified triggers

Indonesia to 2030: a monitorable framework of scenario probabilities, 12 indicator thresholds, event triggers and falsification tests.

essay 16 Aug 2026

The Return of the Single Door

Indonesia, August 2026: current conditions and scenarios to 2030

Indonesia's 2026 crisis: record-low rupiah, disputed GDP data, and a state reasserting control via Danantara, capital controls and export monopolies.

article 30 May 2020

Indonesia 2020: Consolidate, and Respond

An open letter to my friends and clients in Indonesia.

Indonesia's SMEs face pandemic fallout. Gary Dean urges consolidation, market pivots, and strategic responses to survive the post-COVID economy.

essay 1 Oct 1999

East Asia and the Roots of the Economic Crisis

From a Western perspective

Examining the 1997 East Asian crisis: how Western neoliberal assumptions clashed with Asian collectivist business and state-capital ties.